CryptoQuant has highlighted a notable shift in how Bitcoin miners are managing their coin reserves, a development that could change market expectations for the current cycle.
Historically, the Miners’ Position Index (MPI) has spiked in two distinct situations: in the run-up to halvings, when miners often liquidate part of their holdings, and during the late stages of bull markets, when they dump coins into surging retail demand. This cycle, though, appears to be an exception.
Miners Are Holding Rather Than Selling
Although there has been some limited pre-halving selling, the large-scale, late-cycle capitulation typical of past booms has not emerged. CryptoQuant’s recent analysis suggests several catalysts for this change: approvals of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and increased interest from sovereign actors using BTC as a reserve asset are encouraging miners to favor long-term accumulation over short-term sales.
Mining difficulty has climbed to record levels and entered the so-called “Banana Zone,” a phase marked by steep, rapid increases. That rise signals more miners are coming online and competition is intensifying. Transaction fees add another important data point. In previous cycles, fee spikes measured in dollar terms often coincided with overheated markets and foreshadowed pullbacks. This time, however, fees have risen while Bitcoin’s price has moved higher in a steady, staircase-like progression rather than erupting into sharp peaks followed by sudden crashes.
Taken together, on-chain metrics point to a structural change in miner behavior: miners are appearing to align with institutional investors and nation-states in prioritizing accumulation instead of selling into strength. For market participants, the combination of elevated difficulty, higher fees, and a subdued MPI suggests that the current bullish momentum rests on firmer groundwork than in prior cycles, supporting a constructive medium- to long-term outlook.
Signs of Strength
Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal and a crypto analyst, reviewed Bitcoin’s performance through September 2025 in a recent tweet. He noted that while the year-to-date performance lags behind most historical years, it still outperforms the notably weak cycles of 2014, 2018, and 2022. Zooming in on September specifically, Wedson said Bitcoin is doing better than its historical average for the month, ranking only behind 2012, 2015, 2016, and 2022 — a pattern that suggests September may not be as bearish as many expect.
Separately, another analyst characterized Bitcoin’s current price structure as an “inverse head and shoulders of dreams,” arguing that a double inverse head-and-shoulders pattern points to the start of a supercycle. According to that analyst, this formation makes a $150,000 Bitcoin target feel more inevitable than speculative, despite ongoing short-term struggles.
