Ethereum has continued its upward trend this week, surging over 20% in the last seven days and surpassing the $3,600 mark for the first time in several months. At present, ETH is valued at $3,617, reflecting a 5.4% rise over the past 24 hours.
This upward movement has caught the attention of analysts who are investigating whether the price increase is fueled by lasting investor interest or merely short-term speculative moves.
Ethereum Futures Dominate While Spot Market Interest Lags
According to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, Ethereum’s recent price surge is largely driven by activity in the derivatives market. Analyst Avocado Onchain observed that although ETH prices are climbing, the momentum seems to stem from leverage-heavy futures positions rather than continuous buying in the spot market.
This difference raises concerns about the sustainability of the current upward trend and whether spot market buyers will increase their activity. Avocado’s QuickTake analysis, titled “Ethereum’s Rally Driven by Futures Market — Will Spot Demand Follow?”, highlights that the Ethereum Futures Volume Bubble Map indicates an overheated condition in certain areas, marked by increasing volumes.
The rise in futures volume, highlighted by yellow circles on the map, has aligned with ETH’s price gains, indicating that leveraged trading is a major factor in the increase.
Meanwhile, the spot market shows relative calm, with no corresponding surge in volume, suggesting that traditional investor demand has yet to catch up.
The analyst also noted that Ethereum’s Open Interest in futures has reached new highs, reinforcing the notion that the current price movement is largely speculative.
The key question moving forward, according to Avocado, is whether the momentum from the derivatives market will eventually be supported by genuine demand in the spot market. If such interest materializes, it could stimulate broader activity in the altcoin market, he added.
Growing Institutional Interest and ETF Inflows
In another analysis, CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan highlighted increasing signs of institutional involvement in Ethereum accumulation. His analysis shows that ETH is trading at a premium on Coinbase, a platform commonly used by US-based institutions and major investors, suggesting increased buying interest from large-scale players.
This premium, which is rare lately, coincides with a trend of significant capital inflows into Ethereum-focused spot ETFs, reaching new daily records.
Dan pointed out that while current metrics do not signal an overheated market, investors should remain vigilant to potential risks if strong upward trends recur in the latter half of 2025.
For the time being, the combination of increasing institutional interest and growing ETF investments might provide foundational support for Ethereum, particularly if the spot market begins to bolster the momentum initiated in the futures arena.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
