Azuro analyst Mike Rychko said that prediction markets are moving beyond crypto and could become the first mass DeFi product.
Prediction markets go mainstream — Azuro analyst
Prediction markets are moving into the mainstream and could become the first DeFi product to achieve mass adoption. This opinion was expressed by Azuro researcher Mike Rychko, indicating that their simplicity makes them understandable to anyone — unlike traditional financial derivatives.
“Most people will never open a derivatives exchange. But ‘87% chance that Mamdani wins’ is understandable to everyone,” Rychko wrote in X.
Simple language and a “social signal”
Rychko called prediction markets “a clean, understandable signal” that turns complex predictions into simple data.
He compared it to the stock ticker era of the 1980s:
“Back then, stock tickers defined the financial era. Now, prediction trackers define the information economy of the 2020s.”
A political-cultural breakthrough
Interest in prediction markets exploded after NYSE owner ICE’s $2 billion investment in Polymarket, valuing the platform at $9 billion.
Polymarket allows stablecoin betting on real-world events — from elections to sports scores — and has become a major trend in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Its competitor, Kalshi, a regulated platform overseen by the CFTC, gained popularity with a screen in Times Square that shows the odds of New York City mayoral candidates in real time. The video has garnered more than 13 million views on X and was even featured in a South Park episode.
DeFi Effect and Polymarket Numbers
Despite the post-election slump, Polymarket remains the most active prediction protocol in DeFi.
- $15.7 billion in total trading volume;
- $1 billion in October turnover;
- 194 million TVL — 2,300% more than a year ago.
At its peak during the election — 512 million TVL and 590,000 transactions per day.
Mass DeFi product
Rychko believes that prediction markets will be the first to overcome the DeFi barrier for a wide audience:
- They are understandable, interactive and culturally close.
- They turn participation in financial markets into a shared social experience that unites crypto investors, traders and ordinary users.
“People are looking for simple answers — prediction markets provide that,” he concluded.
