The widely discussed cycle model has once again raised questions about whether Bitcoin has reached its peak during its recent rally.
The chart compares past market cycles and suggests a potential peak on December 22, 2025, with the price hovering around $117,000 this week, supporting both cautious and bullish scenarios.
Model Predicts Peak in December
Reports indicate that the chart tracks previous peaks occurring 30 months after market bottoms, extending this pattern to 37 months from the November 2022 low. The forecast indicates a peak on December 22, 2025, with an interim target around $200,000.
These timing milestones have sparked interest as they align with a clear pattern: each cycle has been longer than the previous one.
Experienced Trader Describes Risky Scenario
According to public comments, trader Peter Brandt presented a bearish scenario. He assessed a 30% probability that Bitcoin has already peaked in this cycle, speculating a possible correction to the $60,000-$70,000 range by November 2026 before a significant rally towards around $500,000.
Brandt emphasized that this is more of a probability estimate than a solid forecast. This numerical approach helps traders consider risks rather than create an illusion of certainty.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading around $117,790, down 0.90% over the last 24 hours. The price has dropped by 0.18% over the week and 0.38% over the month.
In the long term, BTC has grown by 18% over the past six months and 24% since the beginning of the year. These figures explain the diverging opinions: some believe the market is evolving rapidly, while others point to sustained growth that still allows for further increases.
Signals for Further Monitoring
According to market practice, the most reliable ways to validate these scenarios are to track fund flows and positioning. Keep an eye on ETF and institutional fund inflows, exchange balances, and derivative data.
A consistent flow of institutional buying reduces the likelihood of a prolonged and deep correction. Conversely, prolonged outflows, rising exchange reserves, or mass derivative liquidations increase the probability of a significant pullback to the $60,000-$70,000 zone.
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