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Bitcoin is currently trading just below $120,000 after hitting a record high of $123,200 on Monday. This minor pullback is seen by many investors as a healthy consolidation above crucial demand levels, rather than a sign of market weakness. The bullish momentum remains strong, with technical indicators suggesting a continued rally in the near future.
On-chain analysis from CryptoQuant supports this optimistic view. As of July 17, 2025, the Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH NUPL) metric is at 13%, slightly down from 16% when Bitcoin last reached its peak. This suggests that most short-term holders are enjoying moderate profits, but not at levels that usually indicate speculative euphoria or imminent market overheating.
The combination of a stable price structure and healthy on-chain activity suggests the market is still in a growth phase, rather than reaching a top. With Ethereum and other altcoins also gaining traction and overall sentiment improving, Bitcoin seems poised for its next significant move.
Bitcoin Data Suggests Potential for Further Growth
Top analyst Axel Adler believes Bitcoin has ample room to grow before entering a speculative overheating phase. In previous market cycles, Adler notes that when the STH NUPL metric hits 25%, it often marks the peak of euphoria among short-term holders. At this point, many investors start taking profits on a large scale, which can lead to a loss of momentum or a broader market correction.
As of July 17, 2025, the STH NUPL is at 13%, indicating moderate unrealized profits among short-term holders. Based on current trends, Adler estimates that for this group to reach a 25% unrealized profit level, Bitcoin would need to surpass $137,000. This price point could serve as a trigger for large-scale selling, representing a psychological and on-chain threshold that might lead to increased volatility or a pause in the cycle.
Until then, the data suggests there is room for continued bullish price movements without immediate profit-taking pressure. This is particularly important as the US Congress is currently debating three major cryptocurrency bills during a tense and uncertain “Crypto Week.” After rejecting the proposals in the past two days, upcoming sessions could either alleviate or extend regulatory uncertainty.
Bitcoin Maintains Key Support Amid Rising Trading Volume
The 12-hour chart shows Bitcoin consolidating just below $120,000 after recently achieving a new all-time high of $123,200. Despite the minor retracement, BTC remains in a robust bullish structure, trading well above all key moving averages: the 50 SMA at $110,602, the 100 SMA at $108,105, and the 200 SMA at $102,178. These levels now serve as dynamic support zones, emphasizing the strength of the ongoing trend.
Notably, trading volume has surged significantly over recent sessions, with consecutive high-volume candles accompanying both the rise to new highs and the subsequent correction. This increase in volume indicates elevated market activity, likely reflecting a combination of profit-taking and new inflows from traders positioning for further gains.
So far, the consolidation appears healthy. As long as Bitcoin stays above the short-term moving averages and $109,300, the market structure remains bullish. A solid reclaim of $120K would pave the way for another attempt at new highs, potentially targeting the $130K–$137K range.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
