Bitcoin (BTC) made a significant move, surpassing $124,000 to achieve its fourth all-time high in 2025. This surge has caught the attention of analysts, with on-chain data from Glassnode indicating the potential start of a sustained bull market.
An important indicator supporting this outlook is the realized price, which calculates the total value of all bitcoins at their last on-chain movement, divided by the circulating coin supply. Currently standing at $51,888, this metric has now exceeded bitcoin’s 200-week moving average (200WMA), a key long-term trendline often regarded as the boundary between bear and bull markets.
Historical data reveals that when the realized price surpasses the 200WMA and continues on an upward trajectory, as seen in the 2017 and 2021 cycles, it typically signals a prolonged uptrend. The 200WMA, presently at $51,344, serves as a crucial long-term support level that has historically marked the bottom during bearish phases.
Instances where this level has been breached occurred during periods of extreme market turmoil, such as the 2022 bear market’s conclusion when bitcoin plummeted amidst the FTX collapse. The realized price dropped below the 200WMA in June 2022 and remained below it for almost three years before reclaiming it in 2025.
This recent breakthrough above the 200WMA holds significance, reflecting renewed investor confidence and a change in market dynamics. If past trends are any indication, this technical advancement might signal the beginning of a sustained upward trend. With favorable macroeconomic conditions and growing institutional interest, Bitcoin’s recent price surge could mark the commencement of its next significant growth phase.
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