Hayes Predicts “Up Only” for Crypto After US TGA Fills to $850 Billion, While Other Analysts Doubt Direct Impact on Bitcoin
Arthur Hayes: Crypto Market Expects “Up Only” After US TGA Fills
The crypto market will get a big boost when the US Treasury Department brings its general account (Treasury General Account, TGA) to $850 billion, says BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes.
Liquidity Expectations
“When the liquidity outflow ends, only growth will begin,” Hayes wrote on Friday, as the TGA balance exceeded $807 billion. Filling the account means temporarily “withdrawing” money from the market, but once the goal is reached, liquidity may return to the private sector.
However, not everyone agrees with this scenario. “The relationship between pure liquidity and Bitcoin is very weak. In my opinion, it’s a useless metric,” said Andre Dragos, head of European research at Bitwise.
Fed policy
Expectations of increased liquidity are also fueling the Federal Reserve’s rate hike cycle. On Wednesday, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points for the first time since 2024, to a range of 4-4.25%.
Bitcoin immediately fell below $115,000 after the announcement, reflecting a classic “sell the news” reaction. Coin Bureau founder Nick Pakrin warned that a pullback could occur in the near future, as the market had priced in the cut.
What’s next
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that FOMC members remain divided on further decisions in 2025. At the same time, CME Group data shows that 91.9% of traders expect another cut — to 50 basis points — at the October meeting.
Analysts agree on one thing: liquidity boom and bust cycles will remain the main factor determining crypto market dynamics in the coming months.
