Bitcoin (BTC) could be on the brink of a major market shift, as a crypto analyst cautions that failing to achieve a new all-time high in the near future might lead to a significant downturn. Although the long-term outlook remains optimistic, the short-term forecast depends on BTC’s ability to continue its upward momentum and avoid a substantial setback that could hinder its ongoing rally.
Threat of 50% Drop Looms Over Bitcoin
Renowned crypto analyst Tony Severino has issued a dire warning to Bitcoin enthusiasts on X social media. He warns that if Bitcoin doesn’t establish a new all-time high soon, it could experience a massive price decline, potentially erasing over half of BTC’s current value.
Severino’s analysis, based on his Elliott Wave chart, suggests that Bitcoin is currently positioned within an intermediate Wave 4 Expanded Flat correction. This indicates that Bitcoin might be approaching the end of wave B, which is typically followed by a sharp decline in wave C.
Severino compares BTC’s current price patterns to the 2021-2022 expanded flat correction that marked Primary Wave 4. During that period, Bitcoin peaked in wave B before plummeting into wave C, initiating a severe bear market.
A similar trend seems to be forming in BTC’s latest chart structure. The chart suggests that the recent price surge might be creating a misleading wave B peak, which could soon reverse into a wave C decline, potentially targeting the $60,000 region or lower. A drop to this level would signify a 50% decrease from current prices, near $118,000.
Importantly, Severino’s cautionary note arises not from a negative outlook but from cautious optimism. While he retains a strong bullish long-term perspective and believes Bitcoin has a final Wave 5 rally ahead, he stresses the importance of BTC achieving a new ATH soon to negate the expanded flat scenario.
If the market does not deliver this upward movement, the corrective structure could take over, delaying the next upward move considerably. Such a downturn could also significantly impact the anticipated altcoin season, stalling momentum across the broader cryptocurrency market.
Analyst Predicts Bitcoin’s Upcoming ATH
Bitcoin has sparked renewed optimism in the past week following its recent price increase above $123,000. Despite a pullback to its current level above $118,000, a market expert known as ‘The Crypto Professor’ on X forecasts that the leading cryptocurrency is on course for a new all-time high.
The Crypto Professor has set Bitcoin’s next ATH target at $129,948, aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension level. With BTC trading at $118,612, this would equate to a substantial 9.6% price rise. Notably, the analyst’s chart indicates prior consolidation zones around the $110,000 and $100,000 levels, corresponding to the Fibonacci Retracement levels of 1 and 0.786. These areas now act as potential support zones if a retest occurs.