Crypto markets tanked hard over the weekend as Bitcoin retreated back to support at $112,000 as trade tariff economic uncertainty returned, quashing risk appetite.
Trump rolled out new “reciprocal” tariffs through an executive order, and a weak US jobs report caused markets to stumble late last week.
Trade tensions are back in the spotlight as President Trump moved ahead with import duties set to take effect on August 7. Meanwhile, trade talks with China have resumed ahead of a key review on August 12, when the traffic pause will expire, which could cause more volatility.
All eyes will be on key PMIs in the week ahead alongside jobs data and more earnings reports.
Economic Events August 4 to 8
July’s S&P Global Services PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) data is due on Monday, which reflects business conditions in the services sector and is a measure of overall economic health.
A similar report is due on Tuesday with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI data, also providing trends in economic conditions. This one follows last week’s weak jobs data and may offer further signs of an economic slowdown.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at the Kansas City Fed’s annual policy forum this week as investors pay attention to any signals on potential future rate cuts at the September meeting.
“The weak July jobs report increases pressure on the Fed to cut rates later this year,” said Bill Adams, Comerica Bank chief economist.
Thursday will see some jobless claims data, which may also indicate darker days for the labor market.
Key Events This Week:
1. July S&P Global Services PMI data – Monday
2. July ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data – Tuesday
3. 10-Year Note Auction – Wednesday
4. Initial Jobless Claims data – Thursday
5. Total of 5 Fed speaker events this week
6. ~20% of S&P 500 companies report…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 3, 2025
More than half of S&P 500 companies have reported second-quarter results, with strong earnings from big tech and AI firms. Reports due this week include Palantir and AMD.
“Volatility has returned as August officially kicks off with earnings season in full swing,” commented the Kobeissi Letter.
Crypto Market Outlook
Crypto markets tanked to a three-week low over the weekend but have rebounded a little during the Monday morning Asian trading session, with total capitalization reaching $3.8 trillion again.
Bitcoin dropped to support just above $112,000, but this level held, enabling the asset to recover slightly to reach $114,500 in early trading this week. However, it is now down 6.7% from all-time highs, and August has been historically bearish for the asset.
Ethereum bottomed out just below $3,400 on Sunday but recovered to $3,560 on Monday morning. ETH was in danger of a bigger breakdown, but appears to have held on to return to its range-bound channel.
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